Thursday, January 28, 2016

Brawl! Dreadnought Vs Daemon Prince

One of the most common questions I get is, "In a fight between this unit and that unit, which one is going to win?"  I did some extensive calculations when I paired an imperial knight vs a bloodthirster, but I want to make this a more regularly featured type of article.  So, I want to introduce you to "Brawl!", where I pair of two units and see who comes out on top.  First up Dreadnought vs Daemon Prince

Note: I am not delving into the world of psychics for this article.  That is a whole different can of worms that adds too many extra variables.

The Daemon Prince:
The good news is that the daemon prince is going to strike first, the bad news is that this is an uphill battle.  Your basic daemon prince is only going to be able to glance the front armor of a dreadnought.  Without a charge, the daemon prince is only going to have a 1.15% chance of killing the dreadnought in one round (using non-smash attacks).  Using the one smash attacks will increase the chances to 7.41%, but that isn't great (or even good).

If our daemon prince is a servant of the blood god, then it gains furious charge, and is capable of penetrating a dreadnoughts armor on the charge.  With the extra attack and the extra strength the daemon prince gets a 10.61% chance to explode the dreadnought and a 10.35% chance to wreck.  Together these give us a total of 20.96% chance of destroying the dreadnought.  If we also give our daemon prince the 'veterans of the long war' upgrade this increases the chance to 34.43%

The Dreadnought:
Things are a bit simpler for the dreadnought.  It will strike last, but any successful wound will insta-kill the daemon prince.  With two attacks, the dreadnought will win 33.61% of the time.  Through charging, or bonus weapons, a dreadnought with three attacks will win 45.90% of the time.  If the dreadnought has a bonus attack AND gets the charge then it will win 55.92% of the time.

Both units in combat:
If we look at a basic daemon prince using smash vs a basic dread here is what we should find:
The daemon prince will kill the dreadnought and survive 7.41% of the time.
The dreadnought will kill the daemon prince and survive 31.12% of the time.
Neither unit will kill each other 61.47% of the time.

Not super exciting.  Looks like both units are going to try and wear the other one down.  Let's give these units some upgrades.

Khorne daemon prince with VotLW and the charge vs dread with 3 attacks:
The daemon prince will kill the dreadnought and survive 34.43% of the time.
The dreadnought will kill the daemon prince and survive 30.09% of the time.
Neither unit will kill each other 35.47% of the time.

If the daemon prince doesn't get the charge:
The daemon prince will kill the dreadnought and survive 9.88% of the time.
The dreadnought will kill the daemon prince and survive 50.40% of the time.
Neither unit will kill each other 39.74% of the time.

Most of the time a dreadnought is going to beat a daemon prince in combat.  Daemon Princes are generally going to be a better unit, and you are more likely to see them on the battlefield.  Don't be overly aggressive with your daemon princes if you opponent has a dreadnought.  A 'low tier' unit, such as a dread can still put the hurt on your 300 point monstrous creature.  Don't get taken by surprise.  I have won games because people have underestimated my dreadnought and charged it with a daemon prince.

If you have suggestions for the next Brawl! matchup post them in the comment section.


  1. Very cool type of article. As a chaos player I love challenges and brawls.
    First don't SM dreads have 4 attacks base now? Sucks for the other dreads (poor helbrute)
    Second how would a tzeentch DP survival be?
    I vote next brawl be between Typhus and his force weap vs something fun!

    1. If SM dreads have 4 attacks, then my general knowledge is out of date. I will look into things.

      Being a Daemon of Tzeentch does add some survivability, but not much. Against 2, 3, and 4 attacks a dread would successfully wound 31.07%, 42.77%, and 53.48% of the time.

  2. This would be a really complex one, but I'd like to know what kind of chances my Lord of Skulls has against an Imperial Knight in CC. In my experience it's not very good. For some reason GW loves to hate Chaos so the LoS is only I3 and Knights get the first jump on him despite the fact he costs 2.5x the price. So there's a chance he doesn't even get to fight back before the Knight rips him apart. However, if the Knight leaves him at low HP his bonus attacks will definitely finish the knight off.

    1. Oh man, the bonus attacks would make this horribly complicated. This is on my radar, but will probably take some time.

    2. Yeah that's what I figured. You would have to find the probability that the Lord of Skulls takes 1 hp of damage, 2, 3, etc etc. Then if you figure out the hullpoint damage distribution he can do back with a single attack you can then multiply that out by the number attacks he is expected to get based on the aforementioned probability he is at each wound profile. It's one of those that is doable but its a heck of an undertaking! Hehe there is a reason I haven't math-hammered it out myself yet.