This was by far the most work of any of the warhammer related probabilities to date. After several rounds of incorrect formulas I started using excel to check my work. I discovered that my formulas were incorrect (again) and that excel was insufficient to do the work that I needed. Fortunately I found a free online course for MATLAB. The past couple of weeks I have been learning how to program in MATLAB, and have come up with some conclusive results.
Deep striking against an oval was complicated for two main reasons: the equations of ovals have more going on than the equations of circles, and the orientation of the oval will affect the probability.
First up we have the probabilities for deep striking on the long end of the oval. This would be the side of a knight or the back of a maulerfiend. Remember these are your chances of being safe.
Distance
|
1”
|
2”
|
3”
|
4”
|
5”
|
6”
|
7”
|
8”
|
9”
|
10”
|
11”
|
12”
|
Chance
|
92.0%
|
91.4%
|
91.6%
|
92.3%
|
93.4%
|
94.7%
|
96.1%
|
97.5%
|
98.5%
|
99.2%
|
99.6%
|
99.9%
|
Most of this looks as expected. Just like when we were deep striking against monstrous creatures a distance of 1" is a bit safer than 2" or 3", but as a whole your safety increases as you get farther away from your target.
As I have mentioned in previous articles the cutoff here is when you add a 6th person to the squad. Once you add a 6th member to the squad, then you have to start placing models closer to your target. The probability of being safe decreases, but you can compensate for this my starting your squad back an inch from where you normally would.
Next up we have the probabilities for deep striking on the short end of the oval. Since this would be on the back of a knight I am guessing that this is what most people are concerned with.
Distance
|
1”
|
2”
|
3”
|
4”
|
5”
|
6”
|
7”
|
8”
|
9”
|
10”
|
11”
|
12”
|
Chance
|
92.5%
|
91.1%
|
91.0%
|
91.6%
|
92.6%
|
93.9%
|
95.5%
|
97.0%
|
98.2%
|
99.0%
|
99.6%
|
99.9%
|
The first thing that is obvious here is that the probabilities for being safe are almost all lower than the previous group. Even so, the chances of being safe are relatively high.
As usual, I wouldn't deep strike your deathstar 1" away from a knight, for a variety of reasons, but small suicide units are going to successfully land most of the time.
At this point I feel like I have covered all of my basis with probabilities related to deep striking. Once again I want to open things up to the readers. Are there probabilities that leave you curious? Have you wondered how things should turn out in combat? Let me know, I would be happy to run some calculations for you all.
Thank you Sir. it seems that is really difficoult to have problems with deepstriking if there is only one obstacle...
ReplyDeleteSingle obstacles are easier to calculate than multiple obstacles, but when I did the probabilities for the gun-line article I had a lot of assumptions. Assumptions make the calculations easier, but generally less accurate.
DeleteNice job! I have perhaps been a bit over cautious with my obliterators/raptors, when dropping them within double-tap melta range is most likely going to succeed. Although as a wise man once told me: "Assumption is the mother of all screw-ups".
DeleteI would be interested in knowing the odds of psychic shooting vs the regular kind in 7th edition. Are pink horrors and flickering fire going to do as much damage compared to say an IG blob of similar points cost? Or are the horrors better batteries than infantry?
Comparing pink horrors to guardsmen, while appropriate in a certain sense, wouldn't be a direct comparison. I think an article on traditional vs psychic shooting would be appropriate, but I am going to end up comparing more than just those two things.
DeleteThanks for the suggestion.
I need an advice!
ReplyDeleteA friend of mine is a necron player, and he always says that the old C'tan was unstoppable. So we will play a special mission Sunday night called "the big Hunt".
There will be the escalation C'tan deployed in the center, my army on one side and another army on the other side (Space Wolves). We will have 800 pt to build our hunter's army. The c'tan, full equipped, is 775 pt.
The goal of the mission, for the hunter is: kill the C'tan (3 victory points) take the corpse of the C'tan and bring it out of the board ( throught the deployment side) for 5 victory points.
If the C'tan will be still alive at the end of the game, he will be the winner.
I can choose between Eldar and dark Eldar units and I have to write down a list that not only has a chance to kill the C'tan, but also that has a chance to defeat the remaining wolves or run away from them with the prey.
If anyone has some knowledge on Eldar knowledge can give me some advice with this particular list building?
PS: the C'an stat: ws6 bs6 S9 T9 W6 I5 A8 D10 TA3+/4++. He will have the S D apoc template and all the scary weapon and tricks.
Don't eldar have multiple sources for Str D shooting? Ideally I would ally a dark eldar character with a webway portal, and deep strike a squad of wraithguard right next to the C'tan. The flamers would probably be more effective because he would get hit a second time with overwatch.
DeleteDespite what's written on the net, I am afraid this would not work. (95 pt for the wwp + 210 pt for the wraithguard + 80 pt for D.E. troops + 102 pt for minimum eldar troops + 100 pt for eldar qg= 585 pt) In this point I will have only the wraith guard that can try to wound him. 5 templates that wound him on 3-6 result means 5*2/3 hit, whit an average of 2 wound each means 6 wound that he will saves with 4++ (=3 wounds left) and then with 5+ fnp (if I did'n miss something that does not allow fnp against D weapons). They are 3 wound in one case, 1,5 wound in the other case. He has 6 W in total so is really really alive. And instead of charging he probably would flame with the apocalipse template S D the guard, not to count the vector strike at S D. all the other points are wasted because they cannot truly wound him due to his high T. the remaining 215 pt are not enough to buy another squad + de qg with wwp. And I cannot just put more wraithguard in the first unit because due to the position only 4/5 of them can shoot a template against the same target, after deep striking.
ReplyDeleteI have to do more math hammer... :-) This is a game that can put an end to a discussion that is going on from more than one year!
That C'Tan is not that problematic for Eldar. D weapons or rending/fleshbane is what i'd focus on. Poison is ok but its nerfed to only wound on 6s so its not that great. Rending and fleshbane aren't nerfed and will wound as normal. D weapons will dish out enough wounds to take it down with a couple hits. Just take multiple wraithknights with the heavy D cannons. The wraithguard with d-templates are a good burst wound option. They won't outright kill it, but if you soften the target up with the wraithknights first you can take it out or at least scare it enough that it won't risk overwatch fire from the unit.
ReplyDeleteActually, you should totally blow him away with scatter laser spam. Taking out his 'unkillable' unit with basic troops will certainly erk him :) Jetbikes hit on 3s, wound on 6s and get through his 3+ save 1/3rd of the time. That calcs out to dealing 1 wound for about every 28 shots, or 186 total shots to get through all 6 wounds. A 10 man jetbike unit can make 40 shots. So take 50 bikes (200 shots) and you would statistically take out his silly C'Tan in a single shooting phase if they are all in range :) Even if you don't 1 round him you'll mop him up with whatever he doesn't kill on his turn.
DeleteThanks for the advices.... But there are still some problems: 50 bikes with scatter laser are 1350 pt, but the points limit is 775 (equal to the value of the C'tan) Then I only own 15 jetbikes that means 60 shots, 40 hits, 7 wound, that means 1 unsaved wound (3+ and 5+fnp saves). All this if I am lucky and I go first. In both case he moves 18 inch and shoots the apoc template with strenght D and kills all the jetbikes that cannot take cover saves or armor saves.
ReplyDeleteDouble WK would be a great options but a) I own only one of them and b) In my opinion it doesn't seems fair to me to field two of them and I won't do it, unless I will have to play against Imperial Knights.
The wraith guards are really strong but they have a delevery problem. If I put them in a vehicle it could be destroyed before they get in range, if I allies them whit dark eldar I will fast run out on points, and the odds of killing that C'tan would be against me.
the best list that I have found untill now is: the Wraith Knight with the seer formation: 2 Farseer with 5 warlock, all on jet bikes. The Farseer will roll on telepathy, hoping for one (or better two) invisibility spell, so that I can protect them against the flames and maybe also protect the wraith knight. If I have to go second I will have to reserve them. Behind invisibility, I can hope for the spell of the warlocks that gives a -3 to the ld, and combine it with the scream of telepathy primaris for a double 3 dice test against ld 7, or in a desperate move I could try to charge him with 3*8=24 attacks, 12 hit, 10 wound, 2 unsaved wound, if at least I can debuff his I with some other spell (if I pick it)
A lot of gambling in this list. It's the one that I like more.
The second one is WK + 3x5=15 warp spiders, that thanks to the formation hit on a 2+ and shooting against i 5 instead of t 9 wound on 5+, so that they shall deliver 3 wound. with that ones of the wk should be enough. But then they will be killed by the wolves, if they are still alive, and lose the game.
If you make an incredibly fast army you could try to avoid the C'tan and let it go after the wolves. Then all you have to do is clean up the mess.
DeleteNice... I can try a similar strategy with the reserves...
ReplyDeleteAnd hope that they hurt a lot each other....
Double WK would be a great options but a) I own only one of them and b) In my opinion it doesn't seems fair to me to field two of them and I won't do it
ReplyDeleteFor someone trying to put to bed a one year debate you don't seem very dedicated to the cause :P All's fair in love and war, and in the grim darkness of the future, there is only war :)
Yes, you are right! :-D But... Maybe it's difficult to explain, but I want a list that give me some advantage, not an "automatic win list". I want to play and win, not just win without playing. My friend must have an hope until the end... :-D
DeleteIt sound like an evil plan of some evil guy in a 007 film.... Usually the bad guy loses awfully... :.( I have a bad feelings... :.D
And this bring us to an interesting question: How to balance the desire of winning with the desire of have fun with friends? If you always win maybe it's an hint that you have become a WAAC, but if you always lose it becomes frustrating...
How do you deal with this issue?
PS: right now, I think the invisible WK it's my best bet ( If I have done my homework right I should have about 90% of having at least one invisibility spell, and a 35% of having invisibility with both the farseers)
I have some doubt about how to set the WK, if with the D cannons or with the D sword and the 5++ shield. Maybe the D sword is better... also because he will deploy the ruins as he wishes and I will not have line of sight on turn one.
Dealing with any gargantuan creatures at such a low point value becomes difficult. I don't think there is any 'automatic win' list. Invisibility is going to go a long way to helping your cause.
DeleteThe C'tan is dead!! :-D yeeee!
DeleteAt the end, my best MC killer in the game are not the d weapons but the warps spiders. That lovely creatures hit on a 2+ and wound against initiative. The next "special game" would have been "Hunting the Lord of Skull" but I think that we will never play that game... Even the lord of skull has initiative 3, and would easily die against warp spiders. Best unit ever! :-D