Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Math by Request: Wyches vs Meganobz
There has been a a request for math from one of the readers. Michele was wondering how many wyches were needed to kill three meganobz. I don't have good news. It's a lot.
Not knowing how many wyches we need makes this problem much more difficult. I ended up having to use an excel program to speed up the process. More or less you are forced to guess and check.
Lets start simple. Hitting on a 4+, wounding on a 5+, and a 2+ save will mean there is a 1/36 chance to cause a wound. Using this information we can extrapolate the following.
Twenty four attacks are need to have a 50% of doing at least one wound, so to have a 50% chance of doing one wound we would need 8 wyches. With a squad of three meganobz things get a bit more bleak. We have to do a total of six wounds. To get up to a 50% chance of doing all six wounds we actually need 204 total attacks which means there needs to be 68 models in attack range.
Doing a bit of trigonometry (since I don't have any models with me) you should be able to form a ring of seven small bases around a meganobz' 40mm base and outside that ring you should be able to form a ring of 14 bases. This gives you a total of 21 models and 63 attacks. Things do not look good. Also these calculations are basically done in a void. In an actual situation the three meganobz would be bunched up or even in base contact with each other. This would prevent you from getting more models in close enough to make their attacks.
However, everything isn't doom and gloom. Wyches aren't the only tools in the Dark Eldar toolbox. Four dark lances will have about a 40% chance of killing all three meganobz and five will have about a 60% chance. Meganobz are also incredibly slow compared to most everything in a Dark Eldar army. If you manage to strand a group of meganobz out in the open, then I would simply ignore them. I haven't played Orks in a few editions, but once you remove the mobility from their transports they usually are pretty easy to carve up.